Synthesia 11 Release Estimate

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Nicholas
Posts: 12160

Post by Nicholas » 01-03-20 3:09 am

I've received hundreds of questions about when Synthesia 11 will finally, eventually be released. With a 1.2'ish person team, time estimates are hard. Synthesia 11 is a huge project with sometimes-shifting goals. Worse, each major OS release from Microsoft, Google, and Apple seem to break a half dozen things and set the already hard-to-determine schedule back a little farther.

For a while now, it had started feeling like I was spinning my wheels rather hard without really getting anywhere. So, as a silly metric, I started keeping an eye on the line number of the "Synthesia 11 Finished!" entry in my own, internal notepad document where I keep track of tasks. Checking every month or so, I was dismayed to see the number of lines steadily growing instead of shrinking as bugs, new problems, and "small features" were added to the list faster than I've been able to complete them.

Granted, it's a rather free-form document where an easy task might have a half-dozen lines of detail but some other much harder task may just take one line. There's lots of white-space to help keep things a little better organized, too. So, I will admit it's not the best metric. But it is a metric!

It occurred to me that with the recent new infrastructure to upload releases automatically, it would be pretty trivial to upload an image automatically, too. So I threw together a two-line script that would track the Synthesia 11 finish line daily and a tiny utility to turn that list of numbers into this little line chart monthly:

Synthesia 11 Lines Remaining In My Internal Task List
Chart updated automatically on the 1st of each month at 2:05 PM Eastern time.

Image

The same infrastructure made it trivially easy to add the dark blue dev-preview dots and light blue official release dots. If an official release doesn't have a label, that's because it's a silent, bug-fix update to the most recent official release. :?

Yes, upon initially posting the chart, there were/are over one thousand lines of detailed task description to complete...

In any event, now that this chart is publicly available and will update 100% automatically without any intervention, hopefully there will be more transparency, which ultimately means more accountability! :D

My goal at the beginning of 2020 is to have that line number decrease every month. As long as it's decreasing, I ought to be able to keep my sanity. And while it's not a perfect answer to "when will Synthesia 11 be finished?", it should give you guys some rough ability to extrapolate an estimate.

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jimhenry
Posts: 1763
Location: Southern California

Post by jimhenry » 01-04-20 12:43 am

So I roughly extrapolate an estimate that Synthesia 11 was released sometime in 2010????
Jim Henry
Author of the Miditzer, a free virtual theatre pipe organ
http://www.VirtualOrgan.com/

Nicholas
Posts: 12160

Post by Nicholas » 01-04-20 12:45 am

I made this same joke to my wife yesterday. ;)

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jimhenry
Posts: 1763
Location: Southern California

Post by jimhenry » 01-04-20 1:42 pm

Did you also estimate 2010? ;) (Only engineers worry about the technical correctness of their jokes. :ugeek: :roll: )
Jim Henry
Author of the Miditzer, a free virtual theatre pipe organ
http://www.VirtualOrgan.com/

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